Abstract Details


Name: Prantika Bhowmik
Affiliation: Indian Institute of Science
Conference ID: TVS202510281
Title: Understanding the Physics of Sunspot Cycle Predictions
Authors and Co-Authors:
Abstract Type: Invited by SOC
Abstract: Solar variability governs the electromagnetic, radiative, and particulate environment in the heliosphere, and it is closely associated with and dominated by the sunspot cycle. The sunspots are one of the primary manifestations of the Sun's magnetic field. Thus, our understanding of the origin and spatio-temporal evolution of the solar magnetic field through sunspot cycles will help the community to probe and predict solar magnetic variability. The dipolar field during the cycle minimum is one of the best precursors for sunspot cycle prediction. However, the intrinsic stochastic nature of the solar convection zone limits the range of predictability to half a solar cycle. Recent developments in physics-based modelling of the solar magnetic field, both in the interior and on the surface, have established the importance of observational data-driven surface flux transport models capturing the Babcock-Leighton mechanism in solar cycle predictions. In particular, one such study combined an observational data-driven surface flux transport model and an interior dynamo model to extend the prediction time window to a decadal scale. That methodology could successfully reproduce the past observed sunspot cycle variability of century-scale, the first of its kind. This work, along with other contemporary studies from the last decade, has paved the way towards a better understanding of solar cycle variability and improved its prediction ability, relying solely on the physics of the solar interior and surface magnetic field. We witness a convergence among all predicted amplitudes of solar cycle 25, as delivered by the physics-based models.