Abstract Details


Name: Nitin Vashishtha
Affiliation: Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences
Conference ID: TVS202510287
Title: Preliminary Insights into Solar Flare Forecasting: Growth Rates of Current Helicity and SHARP Derivatives Versus GOES X-ray Intensities
Authors and Co-Authors: Vaibhav Pant, Dana-Camelia Talpeanu, Prakhar Sigh, Dipankar Banerjee
Abstract Type: Contributory Presentation
Abstract: Solar eruptions, encompassing solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), serve as primary drivers of space weather, requiring advanced models to predict their onset, evolution, and impacts on the heliosphere. Previous studies have utilised datasets like Space-weather Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager Active Region Patches (SHARP) to analyse global magnetic parameters for eruption forecasting. This work merges numerical simulations with observational analysis to elucidate eruption dynamics, focusing on the time evolution of active region magnetic fields associated with flares. Using the Message Passing Interface - Adaptive Mesh Refinement Versatile Advection Code (MPI-AMRVAC) in 2.5 dimensions, we simulate eruptions via the breakout model, embedding a multipolar field in a bipolar background and injecting shear driven helicity. We assess the role of helicity injected in the system for various outcomes, e.g. failed, single, or multiple eruptions. The growth rate of absolute net current helicity proves pivotal in determining eruption likelihood. In parallel, our ongoing investigation examines correlations between SHARP parameter time derivatives derived via Savitzky-Golay filtering and GOES X-ray light curves, which capture flare-induced X-ray emissions. Preliminary results indicate that these derivatives yield stronger correlation coefficients with flare intensities than absolute SHARP values, suggesting that the time derivative of SHARP parameters is more correlated with the occurrence of the solar flare information compared to absolute values. The simulation results highlight the importance of the growth rate of absolute net current helicity in determining eruption likelihood, while future efforts may derive corresponding thresholds from observational data and integrate them with these temporal metrics for enhanced forecasting of solar flares and associated eruptions.